Across social media, no NBA player is as polarizing as Jaylen Brown. You have Celtics fans, who loved him almost as much as Tatum, and who showed massive support for him (when I visited Boston in August after he was traded, I saw dozens of Jaylen Brown jerseys), and then you have the analytics pundits, who claim Jaylen Brown is the 7th option on a team. There is no doubt that Jaylen Brown has had a profound impact on Boston, becoming a big part of Celtics history. But is Jaylen Brown as good as people say?
Jaylen Brown in press conference after trade to the Philadelphia 76ers.
Let’s start with his accolades. Jaylen Brown is a 5x All-Star, 2x All-NBA Second Team, and, of course, the 2024 Finals MVP. A player with that resume couldn’t possibly be flawed! Well- let’s discuss his 2024 Finals MVP. Voters gave Jaylen Brown the award because he took the Luka defensive assignment, and neither Tatum nor Brown were particularly stellar offensively. Jayson Tatum, in the 2024 NBA Finals, averaged 22.2/7.8/7.2 with a True Shooting % of 50.5 (if you’re unaware, TS% adjusts efficiency to count for FT% and 3 pointers, so it is a better judge of a player’s efficiency than just FG%). Jaylen Brown averaged 20.8/5.4/5.0 on 53.5 TS%. Clearly, the 2024 NBA Finals says more about the strength of the Celtics roster at the time (regarded to be one of the best in recent memory) than it says about Jaylen Brown specifically.
Now, onto his playstyle. Jaylen Brown, especially this past season, is not particularly conducive to team basketball. Jaylen Brown is an incredibly skilled one-on-one scorer. Of course, basketball is not a one-on-one game. Players like Luka or Brunson are extremely valuable to a team because they create opportunities for other players. Players like SGA are extremely valuable to a team because of how efficiently they score. Jaylen Brown provides none of the playmaking, with none of the efficient scoring. From the eye test alone, you can tell that Jaylen Brown is reluctant to take the extra pass and tends to shoot long 2s instead of trying to create an easier shot.
This is obvious in his impact stats. DPM (Daily Plus Minus) is a rate adjusted and regressed impact stat (meaning it is player specific and not dependent on the players around you on your team and the opposing players skill, unlike typical +/-). This stat measures how much you impacted the game when you’re on the court. Someone like Jokic, who has a profound impact on a game, averaging an insanely efficient 27.7/12.9/10.7 last season, has a DPM of +7.0, the best out of anyone in the league. There is also offensive DPM and defensive DPM, which judges a player's performance on both sides of the ball.
Jaylen Brown’s offensive DPM is +3.0, with a NEGATIVE defensive DPM. This is a testament to Jaylen Brown’s poor off ball defense and lack of stocks (Jaylen Brown is primarily a strong on ball defender and not off ball). While I do not view Jaylen Brown as a below average defender, Jaylen Brown is not necessarily the “two way player” people consider him as. His defensive tape is very strong, but other than on ball defense, Jaylen Brown is not the strongest defender. Jaylen Brown’s offensive DPM is far lower than someone with his stats would typically have. Jaylen Brown, (last season at least) was not the most efficient scorer. His TS% was 57.3%. This isn’t BAD, but it’s closer to average than what a true superstar should be.
Jaylen Brown after winning Finals MVP in 2024.
Jaylen Brown also struggles with turnover problems. Last season, Jaylen Brown averaged 3.65 turnovers per game. This is similar in turnovers per game to Cade Cunningham, who averaged 3.69 turnovers per game. Now, Cade Cunningham is a true superstar. Cade is an insane offensive engine who averaged 9.9 assists per game last season. This is unlike Jaylen Brown who averaged 5.1 assists per game. The clear issue is where Jaylen Brown gets his turnovers. Last year, Jaylen Brown had a scoring (or non passing) turnover percentage of 10.3%. Comparing this to some other All-NBA players last year, Brunson had a sTOV% of 4.1%, Luka had a sTOV% of 5.0%, and Shai had a sTOV% of 4.4%.
Now, do I think the Jaylen Brown trade was good for the Celtics? I would argue so. The Celtics made a strategic move for cap relief, as Paul George’s contract ends 1 year sooner than Jaylen Brown. The Celtics are looking to get off of the dual max contract situation with Tatum and Brown. The Celtics have a very strong team around Tatum and are looking to prioritize keeping that team around him compared to keeping Jaylen Brown around. Paul George is obviously worse than Jaylen Brown, but at Paul George’s worst, he could be a decent 3&D wing at this point in his career, which is a better fit for the Celtics than Jaylen Brown.
In summary, Jaylen Brown is overrated because he’s simply less of a team player with a bad playstyle in general. He’s not a true ball handler or a legitimate first option. Jaylen Brown is NOT worth the max contract he is paid, especially with the general shift GMs have been having away from players with the max contract. Jaylen Brown simply does not have the same impact as true superstars or people who were snubbed of All-NBA Second Team nods for him last season.
All stats sourced from databallr.com
